The Challenge: Climate Risk, Price Volatility and the Need for New Finance Models

Cocoa and coffee value chains are being reshaped by climate impacts, ecological degradation and structurally misaligned economics, as smallholder producers across the main sourcing regions for coffee and cocoa are stuck in a cycle of poverty, climate-induced impact, and demographic change.

‍“Can we avoid ‘peak chocolate?” was The Guardian’s coverage of our cocoa financing blueprint. It noted that “cocoa prices have reached record levels on the international market. Paradoxically, this does not mean higher incomes for producers.” Coffee faces similar pressures. Cultivated land suitable for Arabica may shrink by up to 50% by mid-century, threatening global supply. The Guardian’s second coverage of our coffee blueprint noted: “Your morning espresso is about to get more expensive.” Arabica suitability may fall dramatically; cocoa production is stagnating under chronic under-investment. The business model is broken; farmers face declining yields even as global demand grows.


Both commodities share a common structural risk: rising global demand is colliding with declining climate resilience. These dynamics expose investors, companies and philanthropic funders to systemic supply-chain risk and reinforce the need for transition-finance solutions that enable farmers and supply chains to switch to proven regenerative agriculture models and accelerate resilience, rather than perpetuate short-term extraction.

“ You can’t sustain a booming chocolate industry worth billions while the producers are living in poverty.”
– Alejandro Litovsky, Founder & CEO Earth Security (The Guardian, 2015)

Our Blueprint Methodology: Designing Evidence-Based Finance Pathways.

Earth Security’s transition-finance blueprints for cocoa and coffee bring together natural-capital analysis, climate-risk modelling and financial structuring into actionable strategies for investors and corporates. They have influenced not only investment solutions, but also global narratives on the future of these commodities through our sponsors and partners: banks, corporate philanthropies and development finance institutions.Our latest report Investing in the Transition to Nature-Positive Coffee outlines a finance-ready roadmap for regenerative, climate-smart production. Our cocoa-related insights appear as sections of the Earth Security Index Reports 2015 and 2017, identifying the converging points of market, production and ecological pressures to flag the systemic risks and leverage points for blended finance.

Our blueprint methodology identifies:

• Transition levers such as agroforestry, tree rejuvenation, shade systems and regenerative soil practices and a wide range of proven practices with case studies and implementation insights.
• Innovative finance structures including blended finance vehicles, corporate off-take models, and resilience-linked metrics that can enable producers and value chains to transition.
• Pipeline design that turns fragmented pilots into scalable, investable transition portfolios for funders and corporates.

Why It Matters

Earth Security’s trailblazing blueprints underscore the scale of climate-driven disruption to commodity systems. This combination of evidence + financial design + stakeholder alignment ensures our blueprints are both analytical and operational—shaping strategies, guiding collaboration among funders and partners, and enabling systemic transition across cocoa and coffee landscapes.

• For investors, the blueprints identify emerging climate-resilience investment opportunities and provide clear pathways to de-risk them.
• For companies, they offer strategic intelligence to secure long-term supply chains in an era of ecological and climatic volatility, providing an economic argument to focus on resilience.
• For foundations, they demonstrate how catalytic capital can accelerate systems transformation and unlock private-sector scale and shape programme strategies.

Across cocoa and coffee, Earth Security blueprints translate complex climate and natural-capital risks into finance-ready, investable blueprints that support the global shift toward resilient, climate-smart commodities.